Chargers QB Justin Herbert is the odds-on favorite, with Josh Allen and Tom Brady not far behind. But there's another quarterback to keep an eye on.
There is a reason why Tom Brady, the best quarterback in NFL history, is not the odds-on favorite to lead his team to the most points scored in the 2022 season.
Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers are tied for second on the list at +800, according to DraftKings.
At +550, the Buffalo Bills are the overwhelming favorites to lead the NFL in points scored. The reason for that is simple.
Although Brady, who helped the Bucs finish second in the league in points per game (29.9) in 2021 has yet to show any clear signs of decline, he is 45. Logic says he has to slow down at some point.
On the other hand, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is 26 and may only entering his prime after helping the Bills score 29.8 points per game (third in the league) last season.
Plus, Allen may have a better supporting cast than Brady. Start off with the fact that every Buffalo win last season was by double digits. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has caught 230 passes for 2,760 yards and 18 touchdowns over the last two seasons.
Wide receiver Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox will take some of the defensive attention away from Diggs. The Bills should have an improved running game after using a second-round pick to draft Georgia’s James Cook and signing veteran guard Rodger Saffold.
And Buffalo had the league’s best defense last year. That’s only going to boost Allen and the offense. Read more about the Bills from the Buffalo News.
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Trouble in Tampa?
There are all sorts of warning signs in Tampa Bay.
Start with the fact that wide receiver Chris Godwin tore his ACL last December and his absence was a big part of the reason the Bucs got bounced from the playoffs. Don’t count on Godwin to have much of an impact early in the season.
To compensate, the Bucs brought in Julio Jones, who used to be one of the top receivers in the NFL. But Jones looked like he was in steep decline with the Tennessee Titans last season.
Throw in the fact that the Bucs lost both of last season’s starting guards -- Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa -- and tight end Rob Gronkowski retired. But the most troubling sign of all came in minicamp.
Running back Leonard Fournette, who signed a three-year, $21 million contract in the offseason, came in heavier than anticipated, reportedly 30 pounds overweight. The coaching staff wasn’t happy.Â
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The Dallas Cowboys (30.4 points per game) led the league in scoring last year, but are +1200 to repeat. Dallas still has its nucleus of quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, but the Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper and didn’t do much to get better in the offseason.
Oddsmakers also like the Los Angeles Chargers (+800) and the Kansas City Chiefs (+850). Kansas City might not be quite as explosive without receiver Tyreek Hill, who was traded to the Miami Dolphins, but the Chiefs still have an elite quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.Â
The Chargers ranked fifth in the league at 27.9 points per game last season. They are trying to take advantage of quarterback Justin Herbert’s last year of his rookie contract by signing receiver Mike Evans to a contract extension in the offseason.Â
While the Bills, Bucs, Chargers, Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams (+1100) and Cowboys are the favorites, it’s possible that a value with longer odds in August could end up as the league leader in points scored.
Two good bets in that department could be the Denver Broncos (+1200) and the Green Bay Packers (+1500). The Broncos brought in franchise quarterback Russell Wilson in the offseason, and his wide receivers are sure to be household names by Halloween.
Green Bay still has quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which means anything is possible. But Rodgers opens training camp with no defined No. 1 wide receiver -- Allen Lazard, anyone? -- and top left tackle David Bakhtiari remains shelved with knee concerns. Read more about the Packers from the Wisconsin State Journal.
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