Who will lead the NFL in touchdown passes? Bills' Allen, Chargers' Herbert, Bucs' Brady among contenders

It’s crowded at the top when it comes to which quarterback oddsmakers think will lead the NFL in regular-season touchdown passes this year.

And it’s no wonder. The top 10 is a who’s who of gunslingers, MVPs and future Hall of Famers. Any one of them can light up the scoreboard anytime, anywhere. From Tom Brady to Josh Allen to Justin Herbert to Patrick Mahomes to Joe Burrow to Matthew Stafford, there are plenty of reasons to like any one of them for the touchdown title.

But there can only be one. And while Herbert is the favorite at +550, according to DraftKings, the Los Angeles Chargers’ quarterback has plenty of competition in 2022.

Last season, Tampa Bay’s Brady led the NFL in touchdown passes with 43 during the regular season. The ageless one also led the league in passing, throwing for 5,316 yards. That was more than 300 yards better than Herbert, who finished second.

Defending Super Bowl champion Stafford was second in TD passes in 2021 with 41 for the LA Rams, while Herbert threw for 38, which was third in the league.

FrontPageBets takes a look at the field, giving insight on which QB will toss the most TDs.

House for Herbert

Entering his third season, Herbert has elevated himself into elite status, especially after last season. He was the only quarterback not named Tom Brady to throw for more than 5,000 yards.

There’s a reason he’s the odd-on favorite (+550) to toss the most touchdown passes considering he spreads the ball around and is surrounded by playmakers, not only at receiver but out of the backfield as well.

Mike Williams set career highs last season with 76 catches for 1,146 yards, adding nine touchdown passes -- the most on the team. Keenan Allen can line up anywhere and is sure-handed. He’s had at least 100 catches and 1,100 yards in four of his last five seasons. Last year he snagged a career-high 108 receptions.

Running back Austin Ekeler was second on the team with eight touchdown catches out of the backfield to go along with 70 catches and a 9.2-yard-per-catch average. Having that check-down at his disposal makes Herbert all the more dangerous.

Allen paying the Bill$

If you weren’t sold on the Buffalo signal-caller before the playoffs last season, his performance in the postseason most definitely had to change your mind.

Led by Allen’s mastery, the Buffalo Bills were one overtime coin flip away from playing in the AFC Championship Game and potentially a Super Bowl. His playoff passer rating of 149.0 is the highest all-time in playoff history. Allen threw nine touchdowns in the playoffs and only 12 incompletions.

For the regular season, Allen finished with 4,407 yards passing and 36 touchdowns. He looks to build on that entering this season at +600 to throw the most regular-season touchdown passes.

Starting with go-to receiver Stefon Diggs, who hauled in 103 passes last year for 1,225 yards and 10 touchdowns, becoming the second Bills receiver to record consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, Allen has weapons around him.

The Bills picked up veteran Jamison Crowder in the offseason from the New York Jets where he caught 51 passes for 447 yards and two scores. Buffalo drafted Khalil Shakir out of Boise State in the fifth round, trading up to get the wideout who caught 77 passes for 1,117 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games for the Broncos last season.

Who else will step up on a receiving corps that is deep, but mostly untested?

Read more about the Bills at The Buffalo News.

Brady bunch

The best quarterback to ever play the game is surrounded this season by perhaps the most talented wide receiver group in the league.

We know what Brady can do. Heck, we’ve seen it for more than two decades, which is why he enters this season at +650 to throw the most TDs.

And we know what his Buccaneer receivers can do as well.

Mike Evans, who caught 74 passes for 1,035 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, is the first player in NFL history to begin his career with eight straight 1,000-yard seasons.

Chris Godwin is working his way back after catching 98 passes for 1,103 yards and five TDs last year before tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 15. Time will tell if he’s ready to go for Week 1, but having him anytime during the season will definitely help Brady’s numbers.

The Bucs added to Brady’s arsenal last month by signing Julio Jones to a one-year deal, while also picking up Russell Gage from Atlanta.

Tampa Bay did lose some production when Rob Gronkowski retired in the offseason, but if last year’s numbers are any indication, Brady isn’t slowing down -- and it should be the “next man up” for the Bucs.

Don’t sleep on Stafford

Stafford sits at +900 to lead the league in touchdown passes heading into this season, which makes him a pretty good value play.

And he’ll have Super Bowl MVP and the league leader in receptions last season, Cooper Kupp on the field with him, along with Allen Robinson, who the Rams picked up from the Chicago Bears in the offseason.

Kupp caught 145 passes for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns during the Rams’ Super Bowl championship run. Robinson caught 102 passes for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns with Chicago in 2020. Last year he struggled with rookie quarterback Justin Fields, only snagging 38 passes for 410 yards and a single TD catch. But with a veteran QB like Stafford, Robinson’s numbers will certainly go up.

Van Jefferson returns for his second season after catching 50 passes and six touchdowns last season. And Tyler Higbee is back at tight end after catching five touchdowns during the Rams’ Super Bowl season.

Top-10 quarterback odds for most regular-season touchdown passes

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers +550

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills +600

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams +900

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs +900

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals +900

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers +1000

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys +1400

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos +1600

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders +1800

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