Rams and Benglas kickoff at 6:30 p.m. Sunday
Super Bowl 56 is projected to draw the most betting action in the history of the “big game.” And with two weeks of buildup, a few trends have emerged to have on your radar before you consider betting ahead of Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. (Eastern) kickoff.
These trends are expansive, covering where the public is putting its money, any injury news and standard betting trends from the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams.
Where is public money going?
A few prominent sportsbooks have released betting trends in advance of Super Bowl Sunday.
BetMGM
The public is backing quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals at the sportsbook.
As it stands, BetMGM is legally operating in 20 states across the country. Of them, 14 have seen a majority of the betting dollars on Cincinnati’s side.
Ignoring total dollars and just studying total tickets placed, 19 of the 20 states have seen a majority of the bets on the Bengals in some capacity.
“As of now, the book is rooting for the Rams,” said BetMGM VP of Trading Jason Scott. “60 percent of all Super Bowl bets came in on Sunday last year. So, we expect plenty of action over the weekend.”
The largest bet at the sportsbook as of Saturday was a $330,000 wager on the Rams -4.
DraftKings
DraftKings is also seeing a majority of the spread and money line bets backing the Bengals.
As of Saturday, 60% of the bets and 55% of the spread-line action was placed on Cincinnati at +5. The Bengals’ +160 money line was also drawing 64% of the bets and money wagered, with Cincinnati’s odds shortening from +170 on Friday.
The public is favoring the Over as well, with 57% of money and 58% of the bets placed on the Rams and Bengals combining to score more than 48.5 total points.
Have the lines moved?
There has been slight fluctuation around the spread, with movement from Rams -3.5 to Rams -4 to Rams -4.5, but it has held at a 4-point spread in the days leading up to the game.
It’s somewhat surprising to see the spread stay so constant with a large influx of bets on the Cincinnati side.
The Over/Under briefly opened at 50 points but has stayed at 48 or 48.5 for the past week at most sportsbooks.
Projecting late movement
With the majority of the overall wagers expected to be placed on Sunday, it will be interesting to see how the spread and Over/Under move, if at all.
With so much money on the Cincinnati side and so little movement from the spread, perhaps there is an expectation that bettors will be betting on the Rams to cover the spread before the game begins.
With recreational bettors entering the fold on Sunday, the total may rise.
Injuries to monitor
The status of both starting tight ends has been the primary focus of this week’s injury reports.
Indications are that Cincinnati’s C.J. Uzomah will attempt to play. He suffered a knee injury in the AFC Championship Game but was able to return to limited practice by Thursday.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ Tyler Higbee has been ruled out due to his own knee injury and Kendall Blanton will start in his place. Blanton caught a touchdown in the divisional round and had five receptions for 57 yards in the NFC Championship Game.
The Rams have a few other injuries to key offensive contributors in running back Cam Akers and Van Jefferson. Both have been limited this week but are expected to play.
Other betting trends
Each team has played 20 games this season. Here is how they’ve done for bettors who bet them against the spread (ATS), overs and money line.
Rams
ATS: 10-10
Overs: 10-9-1
Money line: 15-5
Bengals
ATS: 13-7
Overs: 8-12
Money line: 13-7
Cincinnati has the edge in spread trends, while the Rams have been a bit better at hitting their Overs.
As a favorite, the Over is 7-9-1 for the Rams. As an underdog, the Over is only 3-8 for the Bengals.
Super Bowl MVP favorites
According to BetMGM’s action report, these are the top six betting favorites for Super Bowl MVP, as of Saturday:
Joe Burrow (+225)
Matthew Stafford (+140)
Cooper Kupp (+600)
Aaron Donald (+1200)
Ja’Marr Chase (+1600)
Odell Beckham Jr. (+2500)
Burrow leads at the sportsbook with 18% of the total bets and 26% of the money wagered on the MVP award backing the Bengals’ quarterback.
Over the past eight years, the MVP has been a quarterback five times. There was one wide receiver winner in that span and two linebackers, including current Rams pass rusher Von Miller in Super Bowl 50.
The most popular player prop has been Kupp going Over 103.5 receiving yards. The market opened at 105.5 yards and the Over has drawn 89% of the bets and 95% of the money.
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Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media. Griffin founded bettingwithdata.com and he can be followed on Twitter at @griffybets.
