FrontPageBets GM/Content Director Mike Szvetitz gives his picks for Week 1 of the NFL season.
We can answer it for you: No, Joe Flacco is not elite.
Even if you thought so during his heyday with the Baltimore Ravens, the 37-year-old version of Flacco is as close to NFL starting QB material as the flatiron McDonald’s cheeseburger is a porterhouse steak.
The New York Jets invested heavily to overhaul the offensive line and drafted Breece Hall to be part of a running back committee the franchise hoped would make second-year quarterback Zach Wilson’s life easier.
A preseason knee injury knocked Wilson out of the picture and he won’t take a regular-season snap this month.
Enter Flacco, who draws the Ravens and a contract-year Lamar Jackson in Week 1.
He’s winless (0-5) as a starter with the Jets but not because he turns the ball over or doesn’t move the chains. Flacco is predictable, play-it-safe and Corporal Checkdown, the type of passer the Ravens’ defense will devour.
Not that you are considering Flacco for anything other than a fantasy team name punchline these days.
FrontPageBets is starting the Baltimore defense and not looking back and sitting the Jets’ D with the expectation they’ll spend a lot of time on the field chasing Jackson (+5000 to score three TDs, FanDuel) and Company.
Quarterback
Trey Lance could be a confounding play in some leagues but he rates as a start in 12-team leagues when the San Francisco 49ers open at the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Lance was ranked in the top 10 at the position by Yahoo and he’s being drafted earlier on average in ESPN leagues.
The skill set is there, the proof of production to be determined. In a fight with another second-year quarterback, Justin Fields of the Bears, Lance gets the 49ers three scores including one on the ground for a solid fantasy showing.
When it comes to setting your lineup, we’re fine with Lance ahead of Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott in what could devolve into a run-for-your-life game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) rates as a must-play this week against the Detroit Lions unless you have Jackson or Patrick Mahomes. Hurts was tops in the NFL among QBs last season with 10 rushing TDs and 784 rushing yards.
On the flipside, we’re sitting Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr vs. the Los Angeles Chargers and a defense with teeth on every level, and not trusting the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Mitch Trubisky or the Washington Commanders’ Carson Wentz in new situations.
But if you’re cycling QBs early, Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts) facing the Cover 2 at the Houston Texans and Mac Jones (New England Patriots) at Miami are stronger considerations.
Running back
Hearing Saquon Barkley as RB1 is premature, and the Tennessee Titans are not going to focus their attention elsewhere without stopping the New York Giants’ ground game first. Barkley played in 13 games last season with ankle issues and tore his ACL in 2020. He can be worthy of a spot start but don’t be afraid to get burned with him on the bench until he proves with production he’s a weekly play.
If not Barkley, we’d happily try players drafted in a similar overall position such as James Conner (Arizona Cardinals) against the Kansas City Chiefs and Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos) at Seattle Seahawks with a coin-flip choice between Barkley and Cleveland Browns’ bellcow Nick Chubb. We don’t doubt Chubb getting 20 carries, but the Carolina Panthers are respectable in the front seven and won’t worry about fill-in starter Jacoby Brissett going up top.
We’re also ready to go with J.K. Dobbins (Ravens) against the Jets at RB2 or flex and trust 49ers starter Elijah Mitchell (at Bears).
Wide receiver
The Eagles’ debut of A.J. Brown is enticing. He has 24 touchdowns in 43 career games. In the same game, the Detroit Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown attempts to become the fifth player in NFL history with eight-plus catches in a seventh consecutive game.
Diontae Johnson of the Steelers and Chase Claypool have consistently chewed up the Cincinnati Bengals. Johnson had eight TDs last season and has six-plus receptions in four of his five games against the Bengals. Claypool went over 80 yards in two straight in this matchup.
We don’t love the Miami receivers this week, but Jaylen Waddle scored in both games against the Patriots as a rookie last season.
We’re holding off on all Chiefs receivers as Mahomes resets the pecking order behind TE Travis Kelce and haven’t yet turned the corner on purported Ravens’ No. 1 Rashod Bateman.
Tight end
It's worth watching the level of trust between Mark Andrews and Jackson. Andrews set career-highs with 107 receptions for 1,361 yards in 2021 and scored in his last outing against the Jets.
If you need a fill-in on the roster, Evan Engram could be golden for the Jacksonville Jaguars and has 40-plus receptions in each of the past five seasons. He’ll be utilized in a different way by coach Doug Pederson and might win the fight to become the security blanket for Trevor Lawrence.
We’re on the fence about Darren Waller (Raiders) because of the new-look defense in L.A. and target share becoming a question with Davante Adams in the huddle, but lean toward the green light because he has a TD catch in three of the past four meetings with the Chargers.
But it’s a flat no for these fellas this week: Albert Okwuegbunam (Denver Broncos), Hunter Henry (Patriots), Irv Smith (Minnesota Vikings) and David Njoku (Browns).
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