The case for (and against) an Iowa win over Nebraska in the Sweet 16

The Hawkeyes last appeared in the Sweet 16 in 1999 when a No. 5 seed Iowa lost to No. 1 seed, and eventual champion, Connecticut 78-68. They last won in the Sweet 16, advancing to the Elite Eight, in 1987 when the No. 2 seed Hawkeyes down No. 6 seed Oklahoma 93-91 in overtime.

Iowa will not see the Sooners or Huskies across from them in the Toyota Center on Thursday, but it will be a familiar foe that stands between the Hawkeyes and the best season for the program in 39 years. Iowa will face No. 4 seed Nebraska at 6:30 p.m. Thursday night in the biggest hoops matchup in the heated rivalry between the modern Big Ten foes.

In making a case for an Iowa win and a loss, the program's previous two meetings — one Hawkeye win and one Husker win — show what three keys will lead to each result.

The Case for an Iowa win:

When Iowa knocked off then-No. 9 Nebraska in Carver-Hawkeye Arena last month, it was a masterclass in how to pull off an upset. And, head coach Ben McCollum said the performance served as a sign of things to come — don’t say he didn’t warn you.

“This is what it can be,” McCollum said. “It can be this every night, and it can be fun like this. … Nebraska is a really good basketball team. I thought they had a great game plan, particularly defensively. They’re super physical, and it was a good game.”

If the Huskers had a good game plan, how did the Hawkeyes win?

Control the pace of play

Iowa needs to control the pace of play when they face Nebraska on Thursday, as it did in last month’s 57-52 win.

The Hawkeyes are more accustomed to a slower-paced game than the Huskers. Iowa averages 64.6 possessions per game — the lowest in Division I. The Huskers also trend slower at 68.8 possessions per game, which ranks 269^th out of 365, but the fewer the possessions the better.

When the Hawkeyes won, they held Nebraska to just 44 field goal attempts and forced 12 turnovers. Iowa shot 51 times in the game and scored 13 points off the Huskers' giveaways.

When Nebraska beat Iowa, the Huskers managed 54 field goal attempts (49 in regulation).

Make shooters uncomfortable

Nebraska likes to live by the three-point shot. The Huskers shot the third most three-pointers (1,014) in the Big Ten and rank 20^th nationally in threes made per game (10.6) and 14^th in threes attempted per game (29.8).

When Iowa won, Nebraska went 5-of-24 from deep, including a 2-of-6 showing from Pryce Sandfort, who finished the season as the Big Ten’s leading three-point shooter with 3.6 triples per game on a 41% clip.

When the Huskers won, they shot 10-of-27 from deep with two more threes made by four different players.

Let Alvaro Cook/Get him rolling

Iowa junior forward Alvaro Folgueiras was not a major factor in either game against Nebraska. He scored seven points when the Hawkeyes won and six when they lost.

However, the Malaga, Spain native’s value to Iowa has been a major topic of conversation for the latter half of the season for good reason.

Even before he drilled the game-winning shot against the Gators, Folgueiras affected winning and losing in a way no other player on the roster did. When he scores in double figures, the Hawkeyes simply win. They are 14-1, including both tournament games, when he scores 10 or more and 9-11 in all other contests.

He’s averaging 10 points in postseason play, including 14 in each of the last two contests, plus 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game.

The Case for a Nebraska win:

The Huskers might have had a good game plan against Iowa the first time around, but they did even better preparing for the Hawkeyes the second time around.

Though Iowa ultimately forced overtime, falling 84-75 in the extra period, Nebraska led by as many as 11 points in the second half.

How did the Huskers do it?

Limit Bennett Stirtz

Iowa star guard Bennett Stirtz scored 25 of 57 points in the Hawkeyes’ win over Nebraska. He managed just 11 when the Huskers won.

Nebraska’s ability to limit him the second time around proved crucial to the win.

The Huskers limited Stirtz enough to cause media in Nebraska to question the two-time All-America honorable mention pick’s greatness. Stirtz attempted just one shot in the overtime period and scored 0 points as the Huskers outscored Iowa 14-5 to claim the win.

Stirtz is undoubtedly a great player. That’s why Nebraska needs to keep him in check on Thursday. That might still not be enough — Sitrtz only scored 13 in the win over Florida.

Diversify scoring

Nebraska is at its best when it is hitting the three — and when it has multiple players scoring.

In the loss, only Sandfort (13) and Jamarques Lawrence (11) reached double figures. In the win, Sandfort (15), Rienk Mast (14), Sam Hoiberg (15) and Cale Jacobsen (15) all reached double figures.

The same was true in the Huskers' win over Vanderbilt to advance to the Sweet 16 as Sandfort (15), Braden Frager (15), Mast (13) and Berke Buyuktuncel (12) all scored in double figures.

Nebraska does not need just one player to get hot. It needs all of its players to force Iowa’s defense to contest every shot for 40 minutes.

Don’t let Iowa dominate the glass

The Hawkeyes outrebounded Nebraska 37-24 in their win, including 12 offensive rebounds to the Huskers' two offensive boards. Later in the month, when it won, Nebraska managed to reduce the margin on the glass to just a 32-29 Iowa edge and limited Iowa’s offensive rebounds to just seven.

With the Hawkeye likely to try to limit possessions again on Thursday, giving Iowa any extras will be detrimental to Nebraska's chances at extending the first NCAA Tournament run in program history.

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Photos: Iowa practices in Houston ahead of their Sweet 16 game